{"id":687,"date":"2019-05-15T21:12:00","date_gmt":"2019-05-15T21:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/demsecinstitute.org\/?p=687"},"modified":"2024-03-19T21:14:00","modified_gmt":"2024-03-19T21:14:00","slug":"zelenskiy-faces-tough-choices-amidst-high-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/demsecinstitute.org\/?p=687","title":{"rendered":"Zelenskiy faces tough choices amidst high expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Maryna Vorotnyuk<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On April 21, Ukraine held the second round of presidential elections where Ukrainian citizens had to choose between the incumbent president Petro Poroshenko and the popular comedian-turned-politician Volodymyr Zelenskiy. With 73 percent<\/a>of the vote, Zelenskiy secured a landslide victory across an absolute majority of Ukrainian regions. Zelenskiy is widely believed to reflect the voices of so-called \u201cprotest voters\u201d \u2013 those who are dissatisfied with the way the state, from the economy to the public sector, is performing. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, whose political and ideological preferences remained intentionally vague, rode in on a wave of public dissatisfaction with incumbent President Petro Poroshenko. He offered himself as an anti-system alternative \u2013 honest and unstained by political experience. Although he is allegedly supported by powerful Ukrainian oligarch and Poroshenko\u2019s arch-rival Igor Kolomoisky, Ukrainian voters obviously believed that Zelenskiy was the lesser of two evils.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

To understand this political choice, one has to look at the political and social fabric of Ukrainian society. Five years after the events of Maidan, the annexation of Crimea, and the onset of the Russia-supported war in Donbas, Ukraine is on the thorny path of reforms<\/a>, trying to balance its wartime needs with democratic development. Poroshenko, who himself was elected five years ago in the first round, was given carte blanche at the time to reform the system and to completely reset Ukrainian politics. In some areas, his performance was promising or outstanding, given the dire conditions of the Ukrainian state at war; in others, results were minimal \u2013 as in the oft-discussed failure of anti-corruption reforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poroshenko\u2019s electoral slogan \u201cArmy, language, and faith\u201d was based on the presumed state building achievements under his tenure. Firstly, in five years the Ukrainian army was rebuilt<\/a> into a force capable of resisting Russian aggression. Secondly, the position of the Ukrainian language was considerably strengthened<\/a>, including through the adoption of the language law in April 2019. Finally, autocephaly was granted<\/a> by the Patriarchate of Constantinople to the long-adrift Ukrainian church, making it ecclesiastically independent from the Russian church, which has been celebrated as a \u201csecond independence.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These issues are important for many Ukrainian people, but evidently insufficient to most voters. Instead, ordinary Ukrainians protested against democratic shortfalls and extended economic poverty<\/a> \u2013 as the majority of households in Ukraine felt they had become impoverished, despite the much-praised macroeconomic stabilization of the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Ukraine, which is a parliamentary presidential republic where the president is responsible mainly for foreign and security policies, public frustration was arguably channelled against Poroshenko personally, even for problems that were not be directly attributable to him. There has been a widespread belief that Poroshenko tolerated the system and turned a blind eye to the misdeeds of his associates even if he did not necessarily directly benefit, such as in the case of exposed corruption schemes<\/a> in the Ukroboronprom state enterprise in the defence sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelenskiy\u2019s campaign embodied the public outcry against everything the authorities had failed to deliver. His major pledge before the elections was to confront the internal foe: the clientelist, corrupt, and dysfunctional regime. Yet, his stance on the external enemy \u2013 Russia \u2013 and how to terminate the war and de-occupy the seized territories was much less pronounced. Based on Zelenskiy\u2019s pronouncements, current policies to withstand Russian aggression while pursuing Ukraine\u2019s European and Euro-Atlantic course will continue<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelenskiy has emphasized his fondness for \u201cdirect democracy,\u201d and seemed to be content with delegating the task of developing policy positions to public input; at the presidential debates he confronted Poroshenko with questions he had collected from the people online, and is looking to recruit his team, including his future spokesperson, through social media. Indeed, Zelenskiy\u2019s reliance on \u201cthe voice of the people\u201d has been a political novelty. Yet while this tactic appears to have paid off in an election win, the exigencies of wartime statecraft will require him to make snap decisions and major judgments without the benefit of public input; will he rise to the occasion, or feel rudderless?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A grand narrative underpinning the victor\u2019s electoral campaign was \u201ctiredness from war\u201d. Volodymyr Zelenskiy skilfully capitalized<\/a> on this public sentiment and maneuverer between diverse groups of the Ukrainian population who long to see the armed conflict in Donbas over \u2013 many of them with conflicting opinions about the terms on which this settlement should be made. Zelenskiy once described reaching a \u201ccompromise\u201d with Russia as a technical issue, subject to negotiations. He has also implied that many of Poroshenko\u2019s defence-related measures were unnecessarily provocative. For instance, during the presidential debates he asked Poroshenko why the latter had sent Ukrainian sailors \u201cto die\u201d in the Azov Sea, referring to the incident in late November 2018<\/a> when the Russian military rammed and seized Ukrainian vessels and detained Ukrainian sailors as hostages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zelenskiy\u2019s first days in office could prove sobering. Paradoxically, President Zelenskiy might find himself locked in the same wartime conundrum and keep to Poroshenko\u2019s course by default, which he criticized as feeble. He might find himself finally admitting that the war will not be over tomorrow simply due to a new team\u2019s clever decisions. He will be forced to articulate his stances clearly, some of which are likely to encourage some of his supporters, but alienate others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russian President Putin has already tested the Ukrainian President-elect by issuing a decree allowing the people of the occupied territories of Donbas to receive Russian passports<\/a> by a simplified procedure. Zelenskiy, though not yet in office, responded harshly via written message wherein he described a Russian passport as a liability for its holders as they can be detained and persecuted for dissent. In return, he offered Ukrainian citizenship to people supporting democracy, in a potential bid to cast Ukraine as a regional model \u2013 with himself as its avatar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Time will show how the new President performs; whether Zelenskiy uses his strong mandate to enact major reforms successfully, if his administration is capable of keeping afloat under the pressure of high public expectations, and if he backs up his promises with concrete results. Merely negating the previous administrations\u2019 steps will not suffice, offering alternative and more efficient solutions would be better. Most likely, the political situation in the short term will be volatile. It\u2019s possible, and even likely, that a public show of dissatisfaction will be displayed again during the parliamentary elections scheduled for this coming fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Maryna Vorotnyuk is an\u00a0<\/em>EDSN fellow<\/em><\/a>\u00a0and a research fellow at the Center for European Neighbourhood Studies of the Central European University, Budapest.\u00a0EDSN<\/a>\u00a0is an international research fellowship project of the Center of Social Sciences, Tbilisi, and made possible with the support of the National Endowment for Democracy.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Maryna Vorotnyuk On April 21, Ukraine held the second round of presidential elections where Ukrainian citizens had to choose between the incumbent president Petro Poroshenko and the popular comedian-turned-politician Volodymyr Zelenskiy. With 73 percentof the vote, Zelenskiy secured a landslide victory across an absolute majority of Ukrainian regions. Zelenskiy is widely believed to reflect the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publications"],"yoast_head":"\nZelenskiy faces tough choices amidst high expectations - Democratic Security Institute<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/demsecinstitute.org\/?p=687\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Zelenskiy faces tough choices amidst high expectations - Democratic Security Institute\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Maryna Vorotnyuk On April 21, Ukraine held the second round of presidential elections where Ukrainian citizens had to choose between the incumbent president Petro Poroshenko and the popular comedian-turned-politician Volodymyr Zelenskiy. 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