{"id":1388,"date":"2026-07-01T08:56:10","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T08:56:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/demsecinstitute.org\/?p=1388"},"modified":"2026-07-01T08:56:11","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T08:56:11","slug":"turkiyes-south-caucasus-policy-from-cautious-engagement-to-strategic-assertiveness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/demsecinstitute.org\/?p=1388","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s South Caucasus Policy: From Cautious Engagement to Strategic Assertiveness"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/demsecinstitute.org\/?page_id=1335\">Yelda Karada\u011f \u015eir<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The South Caucasus has gradually evolved from a peripheral neighborhood into a strategic geopolitical gateway for T\u00fcrkiye, since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. T\u00fcrkiye was among the first states to recognize the independence of the three South Caucasus countries\u2014Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia\u2014immediately following their declarations of independence. Beyond its deeply rooted historical and ethno-cultural ties with the region, the South Caucasus holds critical importance for T\u00fcrkiye due to its geographic proximity, its role in energy transit corridors, and its broader geopolitical significance within the context of regional power competition and strategic balancing vis-\u00e0-vis Russia and Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s foreign policy toward the region has largely been shaped by a preference for bilateral engagement with each country, rather than by a comprehensive, long-term regional strategy. While the early phase of T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s foreign policy toward the South Caucasus was characterized by cautious engagement, shaped by strategic constraints and Russian regional dominance, T\u00fcrkiye became increasingly active in the region during the 2000s. T\u00fcrkiye has positioned itself at the center of a critical geoeconomic corridor linking the Caspian basin with global markets through the implementation of major energy and transportation projects such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway (BTK), the Baku\u2013Tbilisi\u2013Erzurum natural gas pipeline, the Baku\u2013Tbilisi\u2013Ceyhan oil pipeline (BTC), the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), and the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). In doing so, it has consolidated its role as an energy, trade gateway and an energy hub to Europe.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since 2016, T\u00fcrkiye has increasingly embraced a more <em>realpolitik<\/em>-oriented foreign policy, guided by the doctrine of \u201cstrategic autonomy.\u201d Within this framework, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s earlier economically oriented regional policy<strong> <\/strong>evolved into a<strong> <\/strong>more assertive, security-centered, and geopolitically proactive strategy. Drawing from a neoclassical realist perspective, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s foreign policy toward the South Caucasus reflects the dynamic interaction between systemic pressures and domestic intervening variables. While the regional power competition\u2014particularly involving Russia, the United States, the European Union, and Iran\u2014has shaped the strategic environment in which T\u00fcrkiye operates at the systemic level, leadership perceptions, strategic culture, and identity narratives have influenced how Turkish policymakers interpret these systemic pressures at the domestic level.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For instance, the 2020 Second Karabakh War significantly changed the regional balance of power and opened new space for T\u00fcrkiye to expand its political, military, and diplomatic role in the South Caucasus. At the systemic level, Russia\u2019s weakening dominance in the region, the EU\u2019s growing interest in connectivity and energy diversification, the United States\u2019 support for Armenia\u2013Azerbaijan normalization, all created a complex strategic environment for Ankara. At the domestic level, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s leadership narratives\u2014emphasizing regional leadership, strategic autonomy, and historical-cultural responsibility toward the Turkic world\u2014encourage a more assertive policy. Yet these narratives must be balanced against economic limitations, the need to maintain pragmatic relations with Russia and Iran, and the risks of overextension. All these external and internal factors both constrain and enable Ankara\u2019s regional engagement, while simultaneously informing its broader foreign policy aspirations in the South Caucasus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Azerbaijan occupies a central position in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s South Caucasus strategy. The relationship between the two countries is often described by the phrase \u201cone nation, two states,\u201d reflecting deep cultural, linguistic, and historical ties. Following the Second Karabakh War in 2020, T\u00fcrkiye and Azerbaijan signed the Shusha Declaration in 2021, which further strengthened their strategic partnership and expanded cooperation in defense, economic, and diplomatic fields. The declaration symbolized the consolidation of the T\u00fcrkiye\u2013Azerbaijan alliance and underscored T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s growing role as a regional security actor. Through defense-industrial cooperation, military training, joint exercises, and the transfer of operational knowledge, T\u00fcrkiye contributed to the modernization of Azerbaijan\u2019s armed forces and enhanced their ability to conduct more flexible, technology-driven operations. The most visible manifestation of this support was Azerbaijan\u2019s use of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 armed drones during the Second Karabakh War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Georgia constitutes a key strategic partner for T\u00fcrkiye, since both countries maintain a strong partnership characterized by high-level diplomatic ties, growing trade, and critical energy\/transport cooperation. T\u00fcrkiye also supports Georgia\u2019s territorial integrity, sovereignty and its Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Reflecting the depth of bilateral economic ties, T\u00fcrkiye ranked first among Georgia\u2019s trading partners in 2025, with total trade reaching approximately USD 3.1 billion, accounting for nearly<strong> <\/strong>12% of Georgia\u2019s overall foreign trade volume<strong>.<\/strong> Alongside flagship energy projects such as the Baku\u2013Tbilisi\u2013Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, the recently modernized Baku\u2013Tbilisi\u2013Kars (BTK) railway occupies a central position in linking Ankara, Tbilisi, and Baku. For Ankara, Georgia is not merely a neighboring state, but a geopolitical bridge that connects T\u00fcrkiye to Azerbaijan, the Caspian basin, and Central Asia without passing through either Russia or Iran. This makes Georgia central to T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s regional connectivity<strong> <\/strong>vision, which links China and Central Asia to Europe through the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and T\u00fcrkiye.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although relations between T\u00fcrkiye and Armenia have historically been strained by the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and long-standing disputes rooted in historical grievances, post-2020 regional dynamics suggest a potential shift toward gradual normalization. Since 2021, both countries have appointed special envoys, and limited confidence-building measures have been introduced. In 2025, Turkish Airlines launched direct flights between Istanbul and Yerevan, marking a further symbolic step in the normalization process. In addition, T\u00fcrkiye and Armenia declared their intention to simplify visa procedures for holders of diplomatic, special, and service passports. While Ankara continues to link full normalization with progress in the Armenia\u2013Azerbaijan peace process, the normalization of T\u00fcrkiye\u2013Armenia relations remain critically important not only for bilateral ties, but also for the future political and economic configuration of the South Caucasus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today, T\u00fcrkiye seeks to strengthen its geopolitical posture by positioning itself as a central node in emerging east\u2013west connectivity networks that link Europe with the South Caucasus, the Caspian basin, Central Asia, and China. By strengthening East\u2013West connectivity, its regional strategy prioritizes strategic partnerships, economic integration, and diplomatic engagement aimed at fostering regional stability amid an increasingly complex geopolitical environment. In line with its long-term strategic vision, Ankara combines economic pragmatism with geopolitical positioning, while the South Caucasus is likely to continue to maintain its strategic significance in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s broader foreign policy agenda, reinforcing its role as an increasingly assertive regional power.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yelda Karada\u011f \u015eir The South Caucasus has gradually evolved from a peripheral neighborhood into a strategic geopolitical gateway for T\u00fcrkiye, since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. T\u00fcrkiye was among the first states to recognize the independence of the three South Caucasus countries\u2014Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia\u2014immediately following their declarations of independence. Beyond its deeply rooted [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-policybriefs"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s South Caucasus Policy: From Cautious Engagement to Strategic Assertiveness - Democratic Security Institute<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/demsecinstitute.org\/?p=1388\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s South Caucasus Policy: From Cautious Engagement to Strategic Assertiveness - Democratic Security Institute\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yelda Karada\u011f \u015eir The South Caucasus has gradually evolved from a peripheral neighborhood into a strategic geopolitical gateway for T\u00fcrkiye, since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. 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