{"id":1050,"date":"2024-11-03T17:23:33","date_gmt":"2024-11-03T17:23:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/demsecinstitute.org\/?p=1050"},"modified":"2024-11-03T17:23:34","modified_gmt":"2024-11-03T17:23:34","slug":"georgias-electoral-battle-continues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/demsecinstitute.org\/?p=1050","title":{"rendered":"Georgia\u2019s Electoral Battle Continues"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This column explores the key issues shaping life in the South Caucasus, focusing on how the divergent paths of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan reflect the region\u2019s complex histories, economic developments, and political shifts. While new generations in these countries grow more isolated from one another due to language barriers and conflicting national trajectories, the same is true for local policymakers, who are often more familiar with distant capitals than their immediate neighbors. Each nation seeks its own path, sometimes in conflict with others, while international actors often treat the region as a whole, reluctant to craft policies specific to individual states. Drawing on personal experience with the region\u2019s revolutions, conflicts and transformations, Olesya brings you\u00a0Beyond Borders\u2014a column exploring how decisions made in one corner of the South Caucasus impact all who live there.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Read full article<\/a> on EVN Report’s website<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last Saturday, for a day, I became someone else. For the first time, I held a small but real measure of authority, sanctioned to monitor an election\u2014a role that felt almost like law enforcement. It began with a Facebook ad from a well-regarded local organization recruiting volunteers to observe the polls. I signed up with barely a second thought, and after a series of interviews, training sessions and exams, I found myself outside a polling station at six in the morning on Election Day, clutching a quickly cooling tea in the predawn chill, ready to witness what many were already calling Georgia\u2019s most contentious election in a generation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hundreds joined me in the effort. Many had spent the spring in protest, outraged as Georgian Dream began pushing through controversial laws<\/a> that drew criticism<\/a> from Western allies and pulled the country closer into Russia\u2019s orbit. For them, this election was about more than choosing the next government; it was about deciding what Georgia would become, and for whom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not everyone shared this sense of mission. My arrival at the polling station was met more with glares than greetings. The district I had been assigned to observe turned out to be a battleground, and my official observer\u2019s badge earned me no favors. Outside, men in black clothing and dark sunglasses lingered in clusters, projecting an air of controlled menace. Just inside the entrance, a woman worked the phones, checking voters off her list as they filed in. Nearby, a man sat beside the ballot box, his gaze sharp and watchful. This year, the ballots prepared by the Central Election Commission (CEC) had ink that bled through, making it easy to guess a voter\u2019s choice. For pensioners, public employees, or anyone reliant on government assistance, sidestepping this web of scrutiny felt nearly impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0With so much invested in securing votes, it was no surprise that by day\u2019s end\u2014and even a week later\u2014Georgian Dream leaders were unwavering in their claim of victory. The Central Election Commission reported they had won over 50% of the vote, a figure that seemed optimistic, if not improbable, when the party projected it a month before the election. Four opposition parties crossed the threshold for parliament but refused to accept the results, each declaring a boycott. Both domestic and international observers flagged irregularities, and foreign capitals urged Georgia to investigate and consider reruns in contested districts. For now, the situation sits at a tense but quiet impasse, offering a narrow path to resolution\u2014one that could just as easily veer into darker territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Despite widespread anticipation, there has been no immediate backlash\u2014for now, the opposition has opted for restraint. Rather than flooding the streets, they have taken time to confer and consolidate their position. So far, this strategy appears effective: two days after the election, thousands gathered in central Tbilisi, rallying against \u201cstolen votes\u201d and calling for a new election. When opposition leaders asked the crowd to disperse, they complied, an unusual deference given the charged atmosphere. Still, this restraint may not hold much longer; each day, factions within the opposition press for bolder action, arguing that diplomacy has run its course.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Street protests are a risky tool. When thousands take to the streets, the situation becomes difficult to control, with ample opportunity for provocations and incidents. The moment violence breaks out, any debate over election integrity will be subsumed by demands for retribution against those responsible for the crackdown. The ensuing blame game between the government and opposition\u2014already so easy to foresee\u2014would leave little to no room for compromise. \u201cNo one wants another Maidan,\u201d one opposition politician told me, referring to Ukraine\u2019s 2014 uprising, which unlocked Russia\u2019s annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Georgian Dream appears equally ready to meet any violence with severe punishment. On the eve of the election, the party\u2019s leaders publicly inspected new riot-control vehicles and equipment, reinforcing their message. Special forces have been stationed in central Tbilisi, close to typical protest sites. Memories of the government\u2019s response to the spring protests are still raw: back then, riot police spiked water cannons with tear gas, compounding the protesters\u2019 suffering. Throughout the campaign, Georgian Dream threatened to imprison opposition leaders, and few were eager to risk providing an excuse, knowing that such arrests could give the ruling party unchecked control over Georgia\u2019s political future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, Georgian Dream shows no willingness to cede an inch to avoid escalating the current standoff. Last Sunday, even as international observers criticized the election\u2019s fairness, party leaders took to social media and state TV to proclaim they had won \u201cwith dignity.\u201d When the European Union issued a statement<\/a> on Wednesday declaring Georgia unprepared for EU membership talks under current conditions, Georgian Dream officials framed it as tacit praise from Brussels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet this facade is unlikely to hold in the long run. According to the Central Election Commission, Georgian Dream claims 90 out of 150 parliamentary seats. Even if they manage to form a government, their legitimacy remains fragile. Georgian Dream lost every district in Tbilisi, including its traditional strongholds, and suffered heavy defeats in Batumi and Rustavi. These losses cast a shadow over their claim to power, one they can\u2019t easily ignore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the short term, Georgian Dream\u2019s stance might soften if Western powers take concrete steps. The EU and the United States have jointly demanded an investigation into election irregularities and have called for potential reruns in disputed districts. So far, these calls have been met with deflection, with Georgian Dream delegating inquiries to the prosecutor\u2019s office and the CEC\u2014neither of which inspires much confidence. But if the West moves to impose sanctions on officials linked to electoral fraud, it could pressure Georgian Dream\u2019s leadership to enter discussions about addressing opposition concerns and restoring public trust.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this unfolding political drama, Armenia\u2019s leadership has found itself in a peculiar bind. On Sunday, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was quick to congratulate Georgian Dream<\/a>, joining Hungary\u2019s Viktor Orb\u00e1n and Azerbaijan\u2019s Ilham Aliyev. Pashinyan\u2019s message came even as Georgian observers were raising serious concerns over election irregularities, and before international monitors delivered their scathing assessments<\/a>. Two days later, leaders from Turkey and China remained notably more cautious, offering general remarks on the election rather than specific endorsements of Georgian Dream or its leadership. Only Venezuela\u2019s Maduro made a similarly explicit statement, congratulating the \u201cprogressive left-wing and nationalist government\u201d that he suggested had distanced Georgia from the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On one level, Yerevan\u2019s eagerness to join what it may have assumed would be a wave of congratulatory statements is understandable. Georgia is landlocked Armenia\u2019s vital trade corridor, linking it to both Russia and the West, and in the past year, Georgia has facilitated shipments of French military aid to Armenia. Still, this logistical lifeline doesn\u2019t rely on any one party in Tbilisi; it\u2019s anchored as much in geography as in diplomacy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the issue is more complicated. Armenia\u2019s early endorsement could be seen as an authoritarian-leaning gesture\u2014a surprising signal from a country that recently declared its intent to deepen ties with the West. Worse, it risks appearing as interference in Georgia\u2019s internal affairs: by endorsing Georgian Dream, Armenia\u2019s leadership indirectly strengthens the ruling party\u2019s legitimacy, making it less likely to soften its position with the opposition. Ironically, this stance runs counter to Armenia\u2019s own interests. Any unrest or instability in Georgia would not only threaten Armenia\u2019s trade routes but also raise the prospect of a destabilized northern neighbor\u2014a scenario with serious regional implications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whether intentional or not, the timing and tone of Pashinyan\u2019s message could now be seen as a misstep, aligning Armenia with those emboldening Georgian Dream precisely when flexibility and dialogue are most needed. Such signals not only complicate Armenia\u2019s international image but, if a mistake, it\u2019s a costly one. After all, neighbors are supposed to know each other\u2019s complexities better than distant allies to the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About the author<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Olesya Vartanyan<\/a> is a conflict analyst with over 15 years of experience in the South Caucasus, specializing in security, peace processes, and foreign policy. She has collaborated with leading international organizations, including the International Crisis Group, OSCE, and Freedom House, where she led research on conflict zones like Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia, while contributing to public policy and confidential peace processes. Previously, she worked as a journalist, reporting on security and conflict issues, including groundbreaking coverage for The New York Times during the 2008 Russia-Georgia war. Olesya has received numerous accolades, including the International Young Women\u2019s Peace Award and the EU\u2019s Peace Journalism Prize. She holds master\u2019s degrees from King\u2019s College London and the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This column explores the key issues shaping life in the South Caucasus, focusing on how the divergent paths of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan reflect the region\u2019s complex histories, economic developments, and political shifts. 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